Smokies Magic Number

KNOXVILLE, TN – A seven-game series won outright by Knoxville, picking up five wins in every which way. Knoxville now sits in the top spot of the Southern League North for the first time in half number one. However, Chattanooga looks hungry, chilling just one game back with six games remaining in the first half. For the Lookouts, it was a series split at home versus Rocket City, and since the beginning of May, Chattanooga only has one series win. The Smokies’ series success has been a little different in that time frame, with four series wins over that span. The magic number is four; with three wins over the Lookouts, + Knoxville can cut into that number with wins over Chattanooga or Rocket City losses throughout the week. With a playoff berth on the line this week for the Southern League North’s two best, who will punch their ticket to the mid-September soiree?

The first of six games between the two teams began on Tuesday, and first pitch for Wednesday’s contest is set for 8 p.m. ET.

An overly powerful offense continued its dominance down in Alabama. The Smokies plated 60 runs in seven games against the Biscuits, averaging around 8.5 runs per game. As a team, Knoxville had the clutch gene down in the Heart of Dixie, displaying a .325 average with RISP in the series. Knoxville was also one of two clubs to have a team OPS north of 1.000 in all of Double-A baseball this past week.

The Knoxville bullpen has been nothing short of nails this season in the most necessary moments. Overall, they post the best ERA in the Southern League (3.91), and they have the most strikeouts in all of Double-AA. As a relief staff, the group has a 10.9 K/9 in 315.2 IP in 2026.

The usage of the relievers has been inconsistent, like many relief corps, and that’s baseball, but the men in the arm barn never blink. For example, the Smokies have also shown remarkable depth in high-leverage situations, with five relievers holding ERAs under 3.00 in appearances during the seventh inning or later (minimum five innings pitched): Tyler Ras, Marino Santy, Evan Taylor, Dawson Netz, and Frankie Scalzo Jr. Vince Reilly has a 3.13 ERA.

Chattanooga starting pitching has been the block holding the building, that is the Lookouts’ first half, together. In the last two series, the Lookouts’ starting core has posted a 3.53 ERA, good for second in the Southern League.

However, the free passes loom large for the Lookouts. Chattanooga has walked the most batters on the season with 137 bases on balls, and 28 walks in their last 63.2 IP. If the Smokies continue to pound the ball the way they have been, even the strength of the Lookouts staff will not be able to stop them.

Players to Watch

The Owen Ayers onslaught continues as he wins back-toback Southern League Player of the Week honors, and his third on the season… It’s still the first half. Since the month began, there is no one better at the plate than Owen Ayers. He is statistically the best hitter in all of professional baseball over the last two weeks. Ayers leads all leagues in average (.560), hits (28), total bases (51), and OPS (1.653)… minimum 45 at-bats. This past series against the Biscuits, Ayers batted in 9 of the Smokies’ 53 RBIs and tallied 10 extra-base hits in the seven games as well. Ayers clearly has a huge part in the extra thump that’s on display in the Smokies lineup and is making a serious case for receiving a call-up to Iowa.

Jace Beck in June has been a pure joy to sit back and watch. In Beck’s bullpen outings against Birmingham two weeks ago, he went 5 scoreless frames while striking out 8 Barons in the process, Beck forced manager Lance Rymal to put him back into the starting rotation, making only his second start of the season. In his Game 5 start this past Friday, Beck fired four more innings without a run while sending seven Biscuits back to the bench, providing Knoxville with one of their better starts of the series.

In June, Beck enjoys nine scoreless innings, only allowing two hits and striking out 15 batters. Jace Beck will hurl in Game 4 for Knoxville, first pitch at 7:00 PM ET on Friday.

Carlos Jorge still shows as the highest asset for Chattanooga. Jorge leads the team in average (.326) and is second in the Southern League in that category. He also gets on base at a .411 clip, which is also the best in the Lookouts offense. The 16th-ranked prospect in the Cincinnati system mans the center field pasture and covers a lot of ground and has added 2 assists on the season.

The top-end talent from Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, is a 60-grade defender and has 60-grade speed, but the bat has surprised many. Jorge makes an impact in this Chattanooga lineup every night and could play a major role in the biggest series of the year.

Probable Pitching Matchups

6/16 Tuesday, 7:00 PM ET RHP Connor Schultz vs. LHP Nick Sando 6/17 Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET TBD vs. RHP Johnathan Harmon 6/18 Thursday, 7:00 PM ET RHP Dawson Netz vs. RHP Javi Rivera 6/19 Friday, 7:00 PM ET RHP Jace Beck vs. RHP Jose Acuna 6/20 Saturday, 7:00 PM ET TBD vs. RHP Kevin Abel 6/21 Sunday, 2:00 PM ET RHP Brooks Caple vs. RHP Nestor Lorant

A playoff spot on the line, the magic number is 4, and if you represent the blue and red, Covenant Health Park is the place to be all week long. The season series favors Chattanooga, as the Smokies are 5-7 so far on the season against the team just 112 miles away. These two met in Knoxville for the last series of April, and Chattanooga snagged four of six, but the Smokies took the series finale in a 7-2 affair. There is no hotter offense in Double-A baseball right now than the Knoxville Smokies.

John Gullion
John Gullion
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